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Should I ship a Science Sandbox?
Sandbox + Science
Of 87 developers who shipped a Science Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3339 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 135 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $9,960) |
| Top 25% | $88k (exactly $88,112) |
| Top 5% | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 87 |
| Released games | 226 |
| Announced | 135 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Strategy
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 106,192 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
ICARUS 2021 · $59M 
Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M 
Kerbal Space Program 2 2023 · EA · $42M 
Timberborn 2026 · $40M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | ICARUS | older | $34.99 | 55,849 75% | 1.7M | $59M (exactly $58,624,695) | RocketWerkz |
| | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
| | Kerbal Space Program 2 | · EA older | $49.99 | 27,930 26% | 838k | $42M (exactly $41,886,621) | Intercept Games |
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | SPORE™ | older | $19.99 | 66,871 92% | 2.0M | $40M (exactly $40,102,539) | Maxis™ |
 | Universe Sandbox | · EA older | $29.99 | 27,843 96% | 835k | $25M (exactly $25,050,347) | Giant Army |
 | Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game | · EA older | $29.99 | 16,815 93% | 504k | $15M (exactly $15,128,456) | Camshaft Software Ltd |
 | SpaceEngine | · EA older | $29.99 | 15,826 96% | 475k | $14M (exactly $14,238,652) | Cosmographic Software |
 | Eco | · EA older | $29.99 | 11,375 80% | 341k | $10M (exactly $10,234,088) | Strange Loop Games |
 | Space Engineers 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 5,095 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) | Keen Software House |
 | Aviassembly | · EA | $9.99 | 9,323 96% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) | Jelle Booij |
 | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
 | The Last Starship | $19.99 | 1,623 75% | 49k | $973k (exactly $973,313) | Introversion Software | |
 | Horsey Game | $9.99 | 2,911 97% | 87k | $872k (exactly $872,427) | Captain Games | |
 | Little Rocket Lab | $19.99 | 1,286 90% | 39k | $771k (exactly $771,214) | Teenage Astronauts | |
 | Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager | · EA | $17.99 | 1,252 87% | 38k | $676k (exactly $675,704) | SpaceOps |
 | Ecosystem | $19.99 | 601 76% | 18k | $360k (exactly $360,420) | Tom Johnson |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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