Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Sci-fi
Should I ship a Sci-fi Sandbox?
Sandbox + Sci-fi
Of 251 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 577 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×5352 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 577 games are announced against 151 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $809 (exactly $809) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) |
| Top 25% | $92k (exactly $92,284) |
| Top 5% | $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 251 |
| Released games | 784 |
| Announced | 577 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Base Building
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 301,503 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 117 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 577 games are announced against 151 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Satisfactory 2024 · $282M 
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
RimWorld 2018 · $219M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Satisfactory | older | $39.99 | 234,993 97% | 7.0M | $282M (exactly $281,921,102) | Coffee Stain Studios |
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
 | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
 | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
 | ASTRONEER | older | $29.99 | 118,844 91% | 3.6M | $107M (exactly $106,923,947) | System Era Softworks |
 | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Jurassic World Evolution 3 | $59.99 | 11,387 93% | 342k | $20M (exactly $20,493,184) | Frontier Developments | |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | shapez 2 - Factory | $29.99 | 13,846 96% | 415k | $12M (exactly $12,457,246) | tobspr Games | |
 | Two Point Museum | $29.99 | 9,626 95% | 289k | $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) | Two Point Studios | |
 | Space Haven | $24.99 | 10,267 85% | 308k | $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) | Bugbyte Ltd. | |
 | StarRupture | · EA | $19.99 | 12,333 80% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) | Creepy Jar |
 | Space Engineers 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 5,095 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) | Keen Software House |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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