Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Sailing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Sandbox?

Sandbox + Sailing

Of 22 developers who shipped a Sailing Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $45k, ×72 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3649 the market median. Revenue is up 540% on the market; 73 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 72.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 540% on the market, 73 announced, ×6.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Sailing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $33k → $656k → $18k → $27k → $80k → $15k (still earning) → $52k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Sailing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $3.7k (exactly $3,748)
Median $45k (exactly $45,205)
Top 25% $249k (exactly $249,444)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 72
Announced 73
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 540% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Sailing; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Character Customization
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 23,779 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.8k, median $45k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.8k. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Naval Action older $19.99 10,187 52% 306k $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) Bermuda Computer Club
Caribbean Legend older $39.99 2,860 74% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) BlackMark Studio
Fishing: North Atlantic - Enhanced Edition older $34.99 2,535 76% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Misc Games
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Ships At Sea · EA older $24.99 2,479 69% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,858,506) Misc Games
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
Finnish Cottage Simulator · EA $14.99 3,396 93% 102k $1.5M (exactly $1,527,181) RANELA GAMES
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Professional Ship Simulator · EA $36.99 81 62% 2.4k $90k (exactly $89,886) SWE Systems
Ship Explorer $19.99 134 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Turbine Room Studio
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.