Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Sandbox?

Sandbox + Runner

Of 25 developers who shipped a Runner Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $598 → $299 → $898 → $537 → $537 → $239
Outcomes for Sandbox + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $537 (exactly $537)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $102,981)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 64
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, 3D Platformer, Platformer
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,170 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $240, 1 in 4 over $530, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
Espire 1: VR Operative older $19.99 381 54% 11k $228k (exactly $228,486) Digital Lode Immersive Media
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
Switchcars older $8.99 164 90% 4.9k $44k (exactly $44,231) Altfuture
Kitchen Simulator 2 older $4.99 80 48% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) WhackAKey Games
Rabbit Simulator older $4.99 55 81% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Meng Games
Saints and Sinners · EA older $6.99 22 63% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) threeW
PEE WAR! older $1.99 61 93% 1.8k $3.6k (exactly $3,642) LBR games, Integer games
Sounds of Nature older $7.99 6 50% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) BB STUDIO
Trump Tariff $1.99 21 71% 630 $1.3k (exactly $1,254) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Fear Simulator VR $3.99 8 25% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Overbuilt S.A.
Treasure Hunter: Echo of War $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Ulab Games
Do Not Fall $13.99 2 100% 60 $839 (exactly $839) After Life Studio
Match 'Em $1.99 9 100% 270 $537 (exactly $537) Mina Pêcheux
Beer Runner $1.99 9 88% 270 $537 (exactly $537) Bonittor Games
Psycho Path $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Twinties studio
Backflip Madness 2 $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Hubert Śliwka

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.