Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports RTS?

RTS + Sports

Only 19 developers shipped a Sports RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Open Wheel Manager 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $860, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $31k, ×21 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 9 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $3.3k → $6.6k → $7.2k → $980 → $1.3k → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $861 (exactly $861)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,169)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 85
Announced 9
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Sports; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Side Scroller, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 223 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $860, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  7. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  10. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds23 devs · median $22k · 48 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Bloodsports.TV 2015 · $76k Football Club Simulator - FCS #21 2016 · $55k Tennis Manager 2023 2023 · $47k Tennis Manager 2022 2022 · $34k Open Wheel Manager 2 2024 · $31k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bloodsports.TV older $9.99 255 83% 7.7k $76k (exactly $76,424) Toadman Interactive, Fatshark
Football Club Simulator - FCS #21 older $9.95 183 66% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,625) Dinamic Games
Tennis Manager 2023 older $9.99 158 81% 4.7k $47k (exactly $47,353) Rebound
Tennis Manager 2022 older $9.99 114 77% 3.4k $34k (exactly $34,166) Rebound
Open Wheel Manager 2 $9.99 104 72% 3.1k $31k (exactly $31,169) Paprikash Games
Shiny Ski Resort older $8.99 102 92% 3.1k $28k (exactly $27,509) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Golf Club Architect · EA older $19.99 38 71% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Interlude Games
Adventures with Alan Parkour 3D older $39.99 13 92% 390 $16k (exactly $15,596) Gamesforgames
Desert Special Forces older $19.99 20 65% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Gamesforgames
The Mythical City older $9.99 38 60% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) Gamesforgames
The Great Axe $19.99 13 84% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Gamesforgames
Bastionforge $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
PipeFlow $9.99 16 75% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Sharkgame
Winning Tactics $9.99 14 78% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Summoner's Automata $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Happy Piggy $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Happy Piggy 2 $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede
The Firestorm is Coming $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Gamesforgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.