Should I ship a Wargame RPG?
RPG + Wargame
Of 84 developers who shipped a Wargame RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 178 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×764 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 178 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,156) |
| Top 25% | $21k (exactly $20,503) |
| Top 5% | $480k (exactly $479,760) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 84 |
| Released games | 321 |
| Announced | 178 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 32,480 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 178 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Foxhole 2022 · $43M 
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS 2025 · $41M 
Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Foxhole | older | $29.99 | 47,330 79% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $42,582,801) | Siege Camp |
| | DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS | $69.99 | 19,578 92% | 587k | $41M (exactly $41,107,927) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
| | Tabletop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 46,875 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,110,937) | Berserk Games |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Kingdom Heroes 8 | older | $29.99 | 12,793 55% | 384k | $12M (exactly $11,509,862) | USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd. |
 | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII | older | $59.99 | 5,828 57% | 175k | $10M (exactly $10,488,652) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children | older | $24.99 | 9,464 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) | Dandylion |
 | Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts | older | $34.99 | 6,664 62% | 200k | $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) | Game-Labs |
 | Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms | · EA | $19.99 | 6,652 88% | 200k | $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) | Free Wing |
 | Three Kingdoms Mushouden | $24.99 | 1,876 72% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) | NanBei Studio | |
 | ZeroSpace | · EA | $39.99 | 1,161 78% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) | Starlance Studios, Ironward |
 | Scavland | · EA | $19.99 | 800 81% | 24k | $480k (exactly $479,760) | NoShadow |
 | Burden of Command™ | $24.99 | 628 83% | 19k | $471k (exactly $470,812) | Green Tree Games LLC | |
 | Castle Craft | $19.99 | 480 82% | 14k | $288k (exactly $287,856) | Twin Earth | |
 | Kingdom's Deck | $9.99 | 495 72% | 15k | $148k (exactly $148,352) | Ivan Aco | |
 | 👑Idle Calibur：Zero💕（选王之剑：零） | $10.99 | 445 80% | 13k | $147k (exactly $146,716) | 绝汪 | |
 | Monarch : Medieval Remastered | $11.99 | 365 80% | 11k | $131k (exactly $131,290) | Mr.Lordy |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.