Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an RPG Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + RPG

Of 76 developers who shipped an RPG Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 165 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $96k, ×71 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $13k; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×31989 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 165 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 71.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 165 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $11k → $148k → $195k → $125k → $179k → $71k (still earning) → $69k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $12k (exactly $12,142)
Median $96k (exactly $95,952)
Top 25% $1.4M (exactly $1,412,273)
Top 5% $43M (exactly $43,089,332)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 295
Announced 165
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, RPG; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 743,685 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $13k, median $96k, 1 in 4 over $1.4M, 1 in 20 over $43M.

3 in 10 developers made under $13k. 4 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 165 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds46 devs · median $85k · 81 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Terraria 2011 · $372M Palworld 2026 · $371M Project Zomboid 2013 · EA · $274M ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M SCUM 2025 · $133M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Project Zomboid · EA older $24.99 364,830 94% 11M $274M (exactly $273,513,051) The Indie Stone
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Conan Exiles Enhanced older $39.99 79,741 78% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,665,278) Funcom, Inflexion Games
Grounded older $39.99 75,755 90% 2.3M $91M (exactly $90,883,274) Obsidian Entertainment
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Starbound older $14.99 87,418 90% 2.6M $39M (exactly $39,311,875) Chucklefish
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Necesse $14.99 24,425 93% 733k $11M (exactly $10,983,922) Fair Games ApS
Voidtrain $29.99 8,713 73% 261k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) HypeTrain Digital
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.