Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports RPG?

RPG + Sports

Of 113 developers who shipped a Sports RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $330. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 124 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 124 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $150 → $358 → $2.8k → $2.8k → $1.5k → $2.9k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $327 (exactly $327)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,663)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 605
Announced 124
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Sports; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, PvP
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 119,179 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 9 in 10 of the 108 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  10. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds208 devs · median $27k · 294 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road 2025 · $23M Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions 2020 · $9.1M Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) 2017 · $6.4M UFO 50 2024 · $5.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
PGA TOUR 2K25 $39.99 3,791 70% 114k $4.5M (exactly $4,548,063) HB Studios
EA SPORTS™ PGA TOUR™ older $69.99 2,156 56% 65k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,953) Electronic Arts - Tiburon
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Skate Story $19.99 2,733 96% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980) by Sam Eng
Backyard Baseball $39.99 1,210 80% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,637) Mega Cat Studios
Beastieball · EA $24.99 1,483 97% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,805) Wishes Ultd.
CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS $59.99 330 50% 9.9k $594k (exactly $593,901) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX $9.99 1,733 85% 52k $519k (exactly $519,380) Tora Creatives

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.