Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Minigames

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Minigames RPG?

RPG + Minigames

Only 19 developers shipped a Minigames RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Star Wars Outlaws, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $40k, ×64 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×41018 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 34 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 63.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Minigames
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $75k → $5.3M → $48k → $1.8k → $36k (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Minigames: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $40k (exactly $40,023)
Top 25% $789k (exactly $788,919)
Top 5% $26M (exactly $25,759,120)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 68
Announced 34
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Minigames
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Minigames; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Arcade
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cartoon, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 31,874 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $40k, 1 in 4 over $780k, 1 in 20 over $25M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds208 devs · median $27k · 294 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Star Wars Outlaws 2024 · $26M Yakuza: Like a Dragon 2020 · $17M UFO 50 2024 · $5.3M Yakuza 6: The Song of Life 2021 · $4.2M Rift of the NecroDancer 2025 · $3.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Yakuza: Like a Dragon older $19.99 28,036 93% 841k $17M (exactly $16,813,189) RGG Studio
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Yakuza 6: The Song of Life older $19.99 7,017 92% 211k $4.2M (exactly $4,208,095) RGG Studio
Rift of the NecroDancer $19.99 5,844 93% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios I… (Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios Inc.)
Swords & Souls: Neverseen older $14.99 6,077 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,827) SoulGame Studio
BRAVELY DEFAULT FLYING FAIRY HD Remaster $39.99 803 91% 24k $963k (exactly $963,359) Square Enix, Cattle Call Inc.
Shenmue III older $29.99 1,028 75% 31k $925k (exactly $924,892) YS NET
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
MILF's Plaza older $14.99 1,585 73% 48k $713k (exactly $712,774) Texic
Isekai Bistro $10.99 180 78% 5.4k $59k (exactly $59,346) DarkShadow Studio
Sex Industry XXX $9.99 160 62% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) Lust Desires 🖤
Shujinkou $59.99 26 92% 780 $47k (exactly $46,792) Rice Games Inc
SEXNATURAL: MILFs Must Be Filled 😈💦 $14.99 100 84% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) Juicy Peach Games 🍑
Yokai: Lust Secret 🪭 $14.99 89 83% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,023) Lewd Star

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.