Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics RPG?

Real Time Tactics + RPG

Of 156 developers who shipped a Real Time Tactics RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 341 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×490 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 341 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 341 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 156
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $1.5k → $2.9k → $3.6k → $1.2k → $450 → $479 (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 156
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,688)
Top 5% $307k (exactly $307,440)
Developers, 2 yr 156
Released games 475
Announced 341
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Strategy RPG, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 25,676 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $630, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 98 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 341 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
OPERATOR · EA older $19.99 8,605 86% 258k $5.2M (exactly $5,160,418) VECTOR INTERACTIVE PTY LTD
Satellite Reign older $29.99 2,619 75% 79k $2.4M (exactly $2,356,314) 5 Lives Studios
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic) older $14.99 5,135 68% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,309,210) Tindalos Interactive
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Crown and Adventure $19.99 1,693 61% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) C3D Games
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
MINOS $17.99 544 88% 16k $294k (exactly $293,597) Artificer
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.