Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Sandbox?

Sandbox + Romance

Of 76 developers who shipped a Romance Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 103 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2601 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 103 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 28.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 103 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $8.2k → $34k → $12k → $83k → $14k → $7.7k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $5.1k (exactly $5,066)
Median $18k (exactly $17,682)
Top 25% $90k (exactly $90,080)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 164
Announced 103
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Simulation, Life Sim
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 80,124 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.1k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $90k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.1k. 6 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 103 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
The Sims™ 3 older $19.99 31,071 85% 932k $19M (exactly $18,633,279) The Sims Studio, Maxis
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Fabledom older $20.99 6,772 85% 203k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,328) Grenaa Games
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
Caribbean Legend older $39.99 2,860 74% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) BlackMark Studio
Roots of Pacha older $24.99 3,779 93% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Soda Den
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Drag'n Wash $14.99 2,880 96% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,295,136) Gator Dragon Games
Shattered Minds · EA $12.99 1,507 91% 45k $587k (exactly $587,278) eXtasy Games
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
To Pixelia $14.99 1,194 73% 36k $537k (exactly $536,942) Pixeduo Studios
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.