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Should I ship a Roguelike Deckbuilder Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Of 144 developers who shipped a Roguelike Deckbuilder Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 199 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1355 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 199 games are announced against 94 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.4k (exactly $2,395) |
|---|---|
| Median | $12k (exactly $11,873) |
| Top 25% | $79k (exactly $79,499) |
| Top 5% | $851k (exactly $850,715) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 144 |
| Released games | 264 |
| Announced | 199 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Roguelike Deckbuilder
- effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 58,664 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 199 games are announced against 94 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Slay the Spire | older | $24.99 | 191,765 97% | 5.8M | $144M (exactly $143,766,220) | Mega Crit |
| | Balatro | older | $14.99 | 160,715 97% | 4.8M | $72M (exactly $72,273,536) | LocalThunk |
| | 9 Kings | · EA | $19.99 | 21,352 92% | 641k | $13M (exactly $12,804,794) | Sad Socket |
| | Chrono Ark | older | $24.99 | 12,623 90% | 379k | $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) | Al Fine |
| | Backpack Battles | $14.99 | 18,933 91% | 568k | $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) | PlayWithFurcifer | |
| | Griftlands | older | $19.99 | 13,440 93% | 403k | $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Across the Obelisk | older | $19.99 | 10,689 80% | 321k | $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) | Dreamsite Games |
| | Wildfrost | older | $19.99 | 8,175 82% | 245k | $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) | Deadpan Games, Gaziter |
| | Dicey Dungeons | older | $14.99 | 10,444 88% | 313k | $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) | Terry Cavanagh |
| | Backpack Hero | older | $19.99 | 7,423 85% | 223k | $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) | Jaspel |
| | Sol Cesto | $13.99 | 4,838 91% | 145k | $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) | Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale) | |
| | Die in the Dungeon | $14.99 | 3,239 92% | 97k | $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) | ATICO | |
| | Yao-Guai Hunter | $16.99 | 2,082 83% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) | MyACG Studio | |
| | SpellRogue | $19.99 | 1,566 86% | 47k | $939k (exactly $939,130) | Guidelight Games | |
| | Breachway | · EA | $19.99 | 1,419 74% | 43k | $851k (exactly $850,974) | Edgeflow Studio |
| | LONESTAR | $12.99 | 2,183 90% | 65k | $851k (exactly $850,715) | Math Tide | |
| | Black Jacket | $14.99 | 1,751 91% | 53k | $787k (exactly $787,425) | Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH | |
| | Death Howl | $19.99 | 1,301 92% | 39k | $780k (exactly $780,210) | The Outer Zone |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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