Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Roguelike

Of 222 developers who shipped a Roguelike Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 319 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 319 games are announced against 142 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 319 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 222
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $82k → $66k → $32k → $12k → $26k → $7.9k → $13k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 222
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,443)
Median $11k (exactly $10,793)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $93,987)
Top 5% $859k (exactly $859,214)
Developers, 2 yr 222
Released games 600
Announced 319
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Deckbuilding
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 77,809 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.5k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $93k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.5k. 6 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 319 games are announced against 142 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M Balatro 2024 · $72M Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M Stoneshard 2020 · EA · $26M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.