Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Roguelike

Of 171 developers who shipped a Roguelike Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 333 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $690; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×564 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 333 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 333 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 171
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $1.6k → $31k → $21k → $12k → $5.9k → $3.6k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 171
Bottom 30% $690 (exactly $690)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,415)
Top 5% $354k (exactly $354,423)
Developers, 2 yr 171
Released games 414
Announced 333
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 11,480 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $690, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $690. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 333 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
Invisible, Inc. older $19.99 5,096 91% 153k $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) Klei Entertainment
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Star Renegades older $24.99 2,673 82% 80k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) Massive Damage, Inc.
Trials of Fire older $19.99 2,975 86% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) Whatboy Games
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Renowned Explorers: International Society older $19.99 2,307 91% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) Abbey Games
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Netherworld Covenant $19.99 597 78% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) MadGoat Game Studio
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.