Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Survival

Of 20 developers who shipped a Survival Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $73k, ×49 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $16k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.8M, ×6549 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 48.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $645k → $36k → $143k → $215k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $15k (exactly $15,350)
Median $73k (exactly $73,163)
Top 25% $913k (exactly $913,196)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 61
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $15.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Survival; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Resource Management, Strategy
Price point
$15.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 23,209 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $16k, median $73k, 1 in 4 over $910k, 1 in 20 over $9.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $16k. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Cosmoteer: Starship Architect & Commander · EA older $19.99 12,013 94% 360k $7.2M (exactly $7,204,196) Walternate Realities
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
New Cycle · EA older $29.99 2,597 78% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,336,521) Core Engage
Creeper World 3: Arc Eternal older $14.99 4,098 96% 123k $1.8M (exactly $1,842,871) Knuckle Cracker
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Laysara: Summit Kingdom $24.99 1,421 80% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324) Quite OK Games
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Rift Riff $12.99 367 94% 11k $143k (exactly $143,020) Adriaan de Jongh, Sim Kaart, Matthijs K… (Adriaan de Jongh, Sim Kaart, Matthijs Koster, Franz LaZerte, Professional Panda)
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.