Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Medieval

Only 10 developers shipped a Medieval Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Diplomacy is Not an Option, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $87k, ×58 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $14k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.8M, ×6549 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 58.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 22 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Median $87k (exactly $86,965)
Top 25% $561k (exactly $561,319)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 34
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 13,523 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $14k, median $87k, 1 in 4 over $560k, 1 in 20 over $9.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $14k. 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
The DioField Chronicle older $59.99 685 49% 21k $1.2M (exactly $1,232,794) Square Enix, LANCARSE Ltd.
Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten (DX edition) older $14.99 2,722 94% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,224,083) Level Up Labs, LLC
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness older $29.99 924 74% 28k $831k (exactly $831,323) GrapeOcean Technologies
Europa Universalis III Complete older $14.99 1,372 85% 41k $617k (exactly $616,988) Paradox Development Studio
Let Them Trade $17.99 1,070 84% 32k $577k (exactly $577,479) Spaceflower
Banquet for Fools $19.99 936 89% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Hannah and Joseph Games
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Elengard: Ascension · EA $24.99 116 77% 3.5k $87k (exactly $86,965) Stèphano M. M. G.
Crownbound - Fantasy Kingdom Sim $11.99 73 47% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) Bart Mamzer
Earth of Oryn · EA $14.99 31 64% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Earth of Oryn
Samurai Conqueror $13.99 18 100% 540 $7.6k (exactly $7,555) Miura Production
Arinoa: Conquest $14.99 16 87% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Alternate
Imperial Wager: The Shattered Crown of Augustus $19.99 1 0% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Ke Zhou

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.