Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Visual Novel

Only 6 developers shipped a Visual Novel Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, UltraGirl Alters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.6k against a market of $630. 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 14 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $103k → $449 → $5.5k
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,189)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 34
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Visual Novel
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,982 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 14 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Guardians of Eden-Embrace of the Forest older $10.99 671 90% 20k $221k (exactly $221,229) Black Cat Entertainment
The Monstrous Horror Show older $14.99 282 89% 8.5k $127k (exactly $126,815) kaniheadcrab
How a Retired Strategist Saved the Country older $13.99 246 90% 7.4k $103k (exactly $103,246) tomadan
Love n War: Hero by Chance II older $5.99 529 81% 16k $95k (exactly $95,061) Reborn Entertainment
VoidBound · EA older $19.99 85 91% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) CursedAtelier
Blade Prince Academy older $19.99 58 65% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) Angel Corp
UltraGirl Alters $19.99 37 64% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) FutureInvention
Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel older $14.99 42 80% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Innomen Team
Roller Drama older $14.99 19 84% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Open Lab Games
Monster Parade: Nurturing a Hero’s Sacred Sword!? older $14.00 13 76% 390 $5.5k (exactly $5,460) YU-CHU-BU!
Grand Fantasy Heroes $9.99 10 70% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) R J L Jones
Notice Me Leena-senpai! $7.99 11 81% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Yanako RPGs, GameDevTosh
League Of Tacticians: Path of Tarkan $5.99 13 84% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Oba Games
Peter's Apostles $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) FUN
Frob: The Incident $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) FLS WORKS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.