Do I ship it?

Games › Real Time Tactics › Real Time Tactics + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 85 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×278 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 134 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 134 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $103k → $11k → $51k → $4.4k → $1.2k → $2.2k → $1.1k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Top 25% $4.4k (exactly $4,404)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $174,680)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 255
Announced 134
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 23,312 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition 2013 · $49M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition older $19.99 21,302 89% 639k $13M (exactly $12,774,809) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Strategos · EA $24.99 233 85% 7.0k $175k (exactly $174,680) Strategos Games
Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns $19.99 216 66% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Black Tower Basement
King's Orders $14.99 257 70% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) AFTERLIFE👻
Bellfortis $19.99 141 90% 4.2k $85k (exactly $84,558) Rake in Grass
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
巴哈姆特1-REMAKE(BAHAMUT1-REMAKE) $9.99 170 95% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) 王韋

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.