Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Supernatural

Only 16 developers shipped a Supernatural Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 欺神弄鬼, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $5.8k → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,756)
Top 5% $240k (exactly $240,359)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 34
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Survival, Survival Horror
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,040 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $5.7k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
At Dead Of Night older $15.99 3,289 94% 99k $1.6M (exactly $1,577,733) Baggy Cat Ltd.
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
Smilers Den Deluxxx $6.99 160 84% 4.8k $34k (exactly $33,552) MikiY
RESEARCH and DESTROY older $19.99 45 95% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Implausible Industries
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
Wonhon: A Vengeful Spirit older $9.99 71 66% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) BUSAN SANAI GAMES
Don't Panic older $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Deep Pixel Studio
Hell of Men : Blood Brothers older $15.99 18 72% 540 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) Whacky Squad Studio, 10Loups Games
Expedition: Shadow World $15.99 12 100% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Pavel Tanonov
Runeomicon $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) TLR Games
King Quest $15.99 2 0% 60 $959 (exactly $959) slc studios
Nuckelavee $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Peatfire Games
Mobs 'N Monsters $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ghostie Games
BE 忍者 · EA $1.99 4 75% 120 $239 (exactly $239) Fortgs
TOSS $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) SolitaryStudios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.