Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Quick-Time Events

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Quick-Time Events Sandbox?

Sandbox + Quick-Time Events

Only 9 developers shipped a Quick-Time Events Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ship, Inc., made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×4.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1035 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 19 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Quick-Time Events
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sandbox + Quick-Time Events: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,058)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,740)
Top 5% $650k (exactly $649,750)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 26
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Quick-Time Events
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Quick-Time Events
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,563 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ship, Inc. $9.99 2,168 83% 65k $650k (exactly $649,750) Rogue Duck Interactive
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
Almost Castaways $12.90 20 100% 600 $7.7k (exactly $7,740) Pent Panda
Divine Adventure RPG older $14.99 17 76% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Masquerade Games
Crypto Trading Simulator · EA $6.99 33 75% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) SUMER
Weapons Simulator older $2.99 36 88% 1.1k $3.2k (exactly $3,229) Maloke Games, Marcelo Contador
Rage Room: Catharsis $16.99 6 33% 180 $3.1k (exactly $3,058) Revino Games
Colors! Maze older $0.99 85 88% 2.6k $2.5k (exactly $2,524) Vergiu
Colors! older $0.99 82 80% 2.5k $2.4k (exactly $2,435) Vergiu
Colors! Maze 2 older $0.99 46 84% 1.4k $1.4k (exactly $1,366) Vergiu
Cozy Tide $3.99 8 87% 240 $958 (exactly $958) breadcrumbs
Square Fishing Builder $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) codegamerstudio
The Cornerman $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) APLCN Studios
Cool Cool Water $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Stone Coyote Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.