Games › PvP › PvP + Visual Novel
Should I ship a PvP Visual Novel?
PvP + Visual Novel
Only 10 developers shipped a PvP Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $78k against a market of $1.5k. 25 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $55k (exactly $55,172) |
|---|---|
| Median | $78k (exactly $78,055) |
| Top 25% | $143k (exactly $143,328) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 48 |
| Announced | 25 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 73% positive over 1,875 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $56k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M 
MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA 2021 · $14M 
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 2025 · $1.3M 
Nitroplus Blasterz: Heroines Infinite Duel 2016 · $634k 
Umineko: Golden Fantasia 2017 · $354k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
| | MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA | older | $49.99 | 9,130 88% | 274k | $14M (exactly $13,692,261) | FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc.,… (FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., TAMSOFT CORPORATION, GameLoop Inc.) |
| | Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 | $69.99 | 631 67% | 19k | $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) | FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd. | |
| | Nitroplus Blasterz: Heroines Infinite Duel | older | $19.99 | 1,058 90% | 32k | $634k (exactly $634,483) | EXAMU |
| | Umineko: Golden Fantasia | older | $24.99 | 472 91% | 14k | $354k (exactly $353,858) | 07th Expansion |
 | Garfield Kart 2 - All You Can Drift | $24.99 | 216 45% | 6.5k | $162k (exactly $161,935) | Eden Games | |
 | Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To | $19.99 | 239 94% | 7.2k | $143k (exactly $143,328) | Soft Not Weak, LLC | |
 | Astatos | · EA older | $14.99 | 298 82% | 8.9k | $134k (exactly $134,011) | Studio Klondike Australia |
 | Bravery Network Online | · EA older | $24.99 | 133 79% | 4.0k | $100k (exactly $99,710) | GLOAM |
 | Falling with Ice Phoenix! | $9.99 | 300 92% | 9.0k | $90k (exactly $89,910) | F Project | |
 | Fuckstone | $11.99 | 217 88% | 6.5k | $78k (exactly $78,055) | Anime Mania | |
 | AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match | $19.99 | 104 33% | 3.1k | $62k (exactly $62,369) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Infinity: HexaDome Tactics | $19.99 | 92 75% | 2.8k | $55k (exactly $55,172) | Blindspot Games | |
 | PENTALOOP -ペンタループ- | $3.99 | 55 72% | 1.7k | $6.6k (exactly $6,584) | イバラユーギ×ひろゆ～プロジェクト | |
 | Heatwave | $10.00 | 21 95% | 630 | $6.3k (exactly $6,300) | Monochromesoft | |
 | Accept or Reject | $3.69 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Tori Aru |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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