Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Twin Stick Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Twin Stick Shooter?

PvP + Twin Stick Shooter

Of 47 developers who shipped a PvP Twin Stick Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 87 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 55% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 87 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Twin Stick Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $598 → $1.4k → $5.1k → $300 → $1.6k → $2.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Twin Stick Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 5% $10k (exactly $10,490)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 159
Announced 87
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Twin Stick Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Twin Stick Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 2D Fighter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 287 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $10k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Warhammer 40,000: Shootas, Blood & Teef older $19.99 2,586 87% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,550,824) Rogueside
Blazing Beaks older $14.99 2,043 84% 61k $919k (exactly $918,737) Applava
Beat Hazard 2 older $18.99 1,396 89% 42k $795k (exactly $795,301) Cold Beam Games
Hell is Others older $14.99 991 73% 30k $446k (exactly $445,653) Strelka Games, Yonder
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
Secret Ponchos older $14.99 613 73% 18k $276k (exactly $275,666) Switchblade Monkeys Entertainment
Guardians Frontline older $24.99 287 83% 8.6k $215k (exactly $215,164) VirtualAge
Hyper Jam older $12.99 431 93% 13k $168k (exactly $167,961) Bit Dragon
Kill to Collect older $9.99 168 67% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) Pieces Interactive
Reflex Unit: Strike Ops $15.99 75 84% 2.3k $36k (exactly $35,978) ROBOSARU Games
Aaero2 $14.99 36 94% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Mad Fellows
Galactic Thunderdome $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Pansimula
NeverCOM · EA $4.99 49 95% 1.5k $7.3k (exactly $7,335) Shenzhen Huajian Network Technology Co.… (Shenzhen Huajian Network Technology Co., Ltd)
Avian Knights $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Alan-1, Inc.
Battle Squares $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Feesh Studio
WIZARD PUNKS!!! $6.99 23 95% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) EyeOfStormCat
Piss Off · EA $20.00 8 100% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,800) Emmanuel Crispi
Goo Goo Grapplers $7.99 20 100% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) Both Good
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.