Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Turn-Based Tactics?

PvP + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 323 developers who shipped a PvP Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 634 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 634 games are announced against 211 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 35% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 634 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 323
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $2.7k → $2.4k → $1.5k → $599 → $599 → $748 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 323
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 5% $109k (exactly $109,145)
Developers, 2 yr 323
Released games 1,032
Announced 634
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Turn-Based Tactics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 77,571 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $480, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 199 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 634 games are announced against 211 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M Company of Heroes 3 2023 · $44M Temtem 2022 · $42M Monster Train 2020 · $15M Mechabellum 2024 · $8.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship older $19.99 12,146 82% 364k $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) KT Racing
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Monster Sanctuary older $19.99 10,416 91% 312k $6.2M (exactly $6,246,475) moi rai games
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Beastieball · EA $24.99 1,483 97% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,805) Wishes Ultd.
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Monster Battles $14.99 459 74% 14k $206k (exactly $206,412) Fourteen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.