Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Turn-Based game?

PvP + Turn-Based

Of 32 developers who shipped a PvP Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×7.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.0M, ×5360 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 56 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 56 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $719 → $6.0k → $109k → $13k → $42k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $11k (exactly $10,782)
Top 25% $60k (exactly $59,810)
Top 5% $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 201
Announced 56
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Turn-Based; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Asynchronous Multiplayer
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 40,384 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $8.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 4 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin 2021 · $14M Backpack Battles 2025 · $8.5M Armello 2015 · $8.3M Mechabellum 2024 · $8.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Monster Sanctuary older $19.99 10,416 91% 312k $6.2M (exactly $6,246,475) moi rai games
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Apokerlypse $9.99 612 81% 18k $183k (exactly $183,416) Breaker Games
Glorious Companions $19.99 182 61% 5.5k $109k (exactly $109,145) Ancient Forge
Tiny Auto Knights $14.99 199 82% 6.0k $89k (exactly $89,490) Mumpitz Games
Valefor $14.99 133 66% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Valefor Ltd
Infinity: HexaDome Tactics $19.99 92 75% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Blindspot Games
Skygard Arena $14.99 93 77% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Gemelli Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.