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Should I ship a PvP Trading Card Game?
PvP + Trading Card Game
Of 47 developers who shipped a paid PvP Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 160 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×445 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 160 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $23,384) |
| Top 5% | $666k (exactly $665,867) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 47 |
| Released games | 231 |
| Announced | 160 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 65%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Trading Card Game
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Trading Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Deckbuilding, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 6,300 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 160 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions 2020 · $9.1M 
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION 2019 · $2.5M 
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2022 · $2.5M 
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 2025 · $1.3M 
Out of the Park Baseball 27 2026 · $712k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions | older | $59.99 | 5,072 73% | 152k | $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) | TAMSOFT CORPORATION |
| | SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION | older | $59.99 | 1,404 82% | 42k | $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) | Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.) |
| | Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days | older | $69.99 | 1,186 76% | 36k | $2.5M (exactly $2,490,244) | FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd. |
| | Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 | $69.99 | 631 67% | 19k | $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) | FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd. | |
| | Out of the Park Baseball 27 | $49.99 | 475 82% | 14k | $712k (exactly $712,358) | Out of the Park Developments | |
 | Yu-Gi-Oh! EARLY DAYS COLLECTION | $49.99 | 444 76% | 13k | $666k (exactly $665,867) | Digital Eclipse | |
 | Supercar Collection Simulator | $12.99 | 1,528 85% | 46k | $595k (exactly $595,462) | Kiki Games | |
 | Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer | $11.99 | 1,609 82% | 48k | $579k (exactly $578,757) | ShaneGame | |
 | Barro | older | $4.99 | 3,253 85% | 98k | $487k (exactly $486,974) | SC Jogos |
 | Ascension: Deckbuilding Game | older | $9.99 | 1,435 88% | 43k | $430k (exactly $430,070) | Playdek, Inc. |
 | Youtubers Life 3 | $19.99 | 468 50% | 14k | $281k (exactly $280,660) | UPLAY Online | |
 | Anime Shop Simulator ✨ | $14.99 | 589 73% | 18k | $265k (exactly $264,873) | One More Time | |
 | Culdcept The First | $29.99 | 95 74% | 2.9k | $85k (exactly $85,472) | CITY CONNECTION | |
 | Fuckstone | $11.99 | 217 88% | 6.5k | $78k (exactly $78,055) | Anime Mania | |
 | Water Margin Scrolls | $9.99 | 244 40% | 7.3k | $73k (exactly $73,127) | QingHe Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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