Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Trading game?

PvP + Trading

Of 24 developers who shipped a paid PvP Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 111 more are announced, ×7.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1427 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 111 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 111 announced, ×7.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5M → $1.8k → $4.5k → $807 → $32k → $599 (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $84,572)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 126
Announced 111
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 56%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Immersive Sim
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 35,239 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $84k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 111 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M Ghosts of Tabor 2023 · EA · $6.9M Mad Games Tycoon 2 2023 · $5.5M SpiritVale 2026 · EA · $2.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 1 older $39.99 1,290 87% 39k $1.5M (exactly $1,547,613) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Interstellar Rift older $19.99 1,411 66% 42k $846k (exactly $846,177) Split Polygon
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 2 older $39.99 521 87% 16k $625k (exactly $625,044) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Monopoly: Star Wars™ Heroes vs. Villains $29.99 94 39% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Mittelland AD $8.99 117 96% 3.5k $32k (exactly $31,555) BKM
Retail Rivals $9.99 47 97% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) DreamStudios, Madse Studios, Sandstorm… (DreamStudios, Madse Studios, Sandstorm in a Bottle)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.