Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Top-Down Shooter?

PvP + Top-Down Shooter

Of 92 developers who shipped a PvP Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 210 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 210 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 65% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 210 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $838 → $598 → $1.2k → $899 → $955 → $208 → $239 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 5% $9.1k (exactly $9,114)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 356
Announced 210
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Top-Down Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 512 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $9.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 210 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Foxhole 2022 · $43M Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront 2021 · $34M Blazing Beaks 2019 · $919k Beat Hazard 2 2019 · $795k Hell is Others 2022 · $446k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Blazing Beaks older $14.99 2,043 84% 61k $919k (exactly $918,737) Applava
Beat Hazard 2 older $18.99 1,396 89% 42k $795k (exactly $795,301) Cold Beam Games
Hell is Others older $14.99 991 73% 30k $446k (exactly $445,653) Strelka Games, Yonder
Nienix: Cosmic Warfare older $19.99 336 87% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) HolmCom
Hyper Jam older $12.99 431 93% 13k $168k (exactly $167,961) Bit Dragon
INVERSUS Deluxe older $14.99 271 88% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Hypersect
BattleCap $11.99 159 96% 4.8k $57k (exactly $57,192) MechAlmond Productions
Survival Nation: Lost Horizon · EA older $14.99 113 55% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.
Reflex Unit: Strike Ops $15.99 75 84% 2.3k $36k (exactly $35,978) ROBOSARU Games
Darkchaser: Battletide $5.99 84 73% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) DB Studio
Touhou Brawl $11.99 39 51% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) FIVE DUCK GAMES
Escape from Junglekov $15.99 19 42% 570 $9.1k (exactly $9,114) thinfat
Luminaria: Dark Echoes $9.99 30 86% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Enthariel Games
Wink Out · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Clevergence Games
Diddy $7.99 24 62% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) GalaxyVerse
Beyond Solar · EA $9.99 17 88% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) COREGAME Studios
Rum N' Gold Royale $4.99 34 97% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) PrimalDev Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.