Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller PvP game?

PvP + Thriller

Of 31 developers who shipped a Thriller PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 61 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 61 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $3.6k → $713 → $5.7k → $39k → $599 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,174)
Top 5% $328k (exactly $328,172)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 79
Announced 61
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Stealth
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 5,025 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $540, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Secret Neighbor: Hello Neighbor Multiplayer older $19.99 14,865 86% 446k $8.9M (exactly $8,914,540) Hologryph, Eerie Guest Studios
Fear Therapy · EA older $4.99 3,630 68% 109k $543k (exactly $543,411) Black Flag Studios
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
Final Sentence $9.99 1,095 84% 33k $328k (exactly $328,172) Button Mash
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
SIDE EFFECTS $4.99 858 83% 26k $128k (exactly $128,443) hirohun, Mr.Pootsley, Jaybooty, Lofar42
Terrordrome - Reign of the Legends $19.99 168 72% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Huracan Studio
Midnight Murder Club $9.99 304 71% 9.1k $91k (exactly $91,109) Velan Studios
Holy Purge : Exorcist older $9.99 168 69% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) Celeritas Games
NIGHT CROW older $15.99 85 68% 2.6k $41k (exactly $40,774) Ge-Aivan
Damned 2 · EA $13.99 92 84% 2.8k $39k (exactly $38,612) 9heads Game Studios
Jumpscare Simulator: System Breach $4.99 88 90% 2.6k $13k (exactly $13,174) Durultay Games
Cursed Deal $7.99 51 98% 1.5k $12k (exactly $12,225) Massive Crystal Studios
DON'T GET GOT · EA $4.99 38 47% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) Bossa Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.