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Should I ship a PvP Third-Person Shooter?
PvP + Third-Person Shooter
Of 149 developers who shipped a PvP Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 442 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 442 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $539 (exactly $539) |
| Top 25% | $9.0k (exactly $8,994) |
| Top 5% | $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 149 |
| Released games | 596 |
| Announced | 442 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 39%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Third-Person Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Online Co-Op
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 620,314 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 113 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 442 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M 
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M 
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced 2025 · $190M 
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands 2017 · $149M 
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II 2020 · $105M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 | older | $59.99 | 168,628 84% | 5.1M | $303M (exactly $303,479,812) | Saber Interactive |
| | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
| | Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands | older | $49.99 | 99,590 78% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,355,123) | Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade) |
| | STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II | older | $39.99 | 87,494 88% | 2.6M | $105M (exactly $104,966,552) | DICE |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® II | older | $69.99 | 26,543 45% | 796k | $56M (exactly $55,732,337) | Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox,… (Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Demonware, Toys for Bob) |
 | Plants vs. Zombies™ Garden Warfare 2: Deluxe Edition | older | $29.99 | 45,480 90% | 1.4M | $41M (exactly $40,918,356) | PopCap |
 | REMATCH | $29.99 | 39,905 70% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,902,528) | Sloclap | |
 | Red Dead Online | older | $19.99 | 59,572 82% | 1.8M | $36M (exactly $35,725,328) | Rockstar Games |
 | Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 | older | $29.99 | 32,600 79% | 978k | $29M (exactly $29,330,220) | Ubisoft |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | Mistfall Hunter | $24.99 | 16,045 53% | 481k | $12M (exactly $12,028,936) | Bellring Games | |
 | Gears of War: Reloaded | $39.99 | 3,950 61% | 119k | $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) | The Coalition | |
 | SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada | $39.99 | 3,303 40% | 99k | $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) | Game Studio Inc. | |
 | Over The Top: WWI | $19.14 | 6,683 84% | 200k | $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) | Flying Squirrel Entertainment | |
 | MindsEye | $34.99 | 2,855 48% | 86k | $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) | Build A Rocket Boy | |
 | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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