Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Tabletop game?

PvP + Tabletop

Of 260 developers who shipped a PvP Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 398 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 398 games are announced against 173 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 398 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 260
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $2.9k → $1.0k → $713 → $564 → $599 → $359 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 260
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 5% $85k (exactly $85,472)
Developers, 2 yr 260
Released games 725
Announced 398
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Card Game
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 55,917 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $360, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $85k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 125 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 398 games are announced against 173 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UNO older $9.99 42,019 70% 1.3M $13M (exactly $12,593,094) Ubisoft Entertainment
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Ark Nova $22.99 825 94% 25k $569k (exactly $569,002) Dire Wolf
NEW MONOPOLY® $29.99 531 36% 16k $478k (exactly $477,741) UBISOFT, Engine Software
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting
Nine-Ball Roulette $3.99 2,159 88% 65k $258k (exactly $258,432) WaveBox Labs
Toy Smash Kaboom! $13.99 550 84% 17k $231k (exactly $230,835) Free Particle
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.