Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Survival Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Survival Horror?

PvP + Survival Horror

Of 74 developers who shipped a PvP Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 184 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×1680 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 184 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 184 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Survival Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $9.9k → $6.5k → $1.3k → $2.7k → $3.8k → $4.1k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Survival Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,612)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 223
Announced 184
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Survival Horror; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, Survival
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 96,905 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 184 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Back 4 Blood older $59.99 55,160 69% 1.7M $99M (exactly $99,271,452) Turtle Rock Studios
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
Depth older $19.99 23,590 89% 708k $14M (exactly $14,146,923) Ammobox Studios
BIGFOOT · EA older $19.99 17,818 83% 535k $11M (exactly $10,685,455) CyberLight Game Studio
Night of the Dead older $29.99 10,380 77% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,338,886) Jackto Studios
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
Level Zero: Extraction $19.99 2,446 50% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) Doghowl Games
Carnival Hunt · EA $19.99 2,092 63% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,254,572) Crytivo, Beer Night Studio
Last Remains · EA $19.99 914 51% 27k $548k (exactly $548,126) Earn Alliance
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
Animal Company · EA $19.99 749 86% 22k $449k (exactly $449,175) Wooster Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.