Should I ship a PvP Survival game?
PvP + Survival
Of 204 developers who shipped a PvP Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 550 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $6.6M, ×4466 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 550 games are announced against 128 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) |
| Top 25% | $36k (exactly $36,488) |
| Top 5% | $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 204 |
| Released games | 810 |
| Announced | 550 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, Shooter
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 658,890 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 122 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 550 games are announced against 128 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M 
Dying Light 2015 · $280M 
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands 2017 · $149M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
| | Dying Light | older | $24.99 | 373,413 95% | 11M | $280M (exactly $279,947,726) | Techland |
| | Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands | older | $49.99 | 99,590 78% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,355,123) | Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade) |
 | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | V Rising | older | $34.99 | 110,505 89% | 3.3M | $116M (exactly $115,997,098) | Stunlock Studios |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Back 4 Blood | older | $59.99 | 55,160 69% | 1.7M | $99M (exactly $99,271,452) | Turtle Rock Studios |
 | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
 | Marathon | $39.99 | 44,919 81% | 1.3M | $54M (exactly $53,889,324) | Bungie | |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
 | Halloween: The Game | $39.99 | 11,868 68% | 356k | $14M (exactly $14,238,040) | IllFonic | |
 | Mistfall Hunter | $24.99 | 16,045 53% | 481k | $12M (exactly $12,028,936) | Bellring Games | |
 | SAND: Raiders of Sophie | · EA | $24.99 | 12,485 49% | 375k | $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) | Hologryph, TowerHaus |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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