Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Strategy RPG?

PvP + Strategy RPG

Of 59 developers who shipped a paid PvP Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 162 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 162 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 162 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $55k → $4.4k → $713 → $899 → $3.6k → $150 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,595)
Top 5% $852k (exactly $851,659)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 282
Announced 162
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 49%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Tactical RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,762 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $900, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 6 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M Hero's Hour 2022 · $2.5M Wargroove 2019 · $2.4M ZeroSpace 2026 · EA · $1.4M DEFCON 2006 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Hero's Hour older $17.99 4,643 79% 139k $2.5M (exactly $2,505,827) Benjamin "ThingOnItsOwn" Hauer
Wargroove older $19.99 4,015 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,407,796) Chucklefish
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
DEFCON older $11.99 3,460 86% 104k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) Introversion Software
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Legend of Mana older $29.99 1,132 78% 34k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,460) Square Enix, M2 Co., Ltd.
The Scouring · EA $24.99 1,136 88% 34k $852k (exactly $851,659) Orc Group
SpellForce 3 Fallen God older $19.99 1,335 86% 40k $801k (exactly $800,599) Grimlore Games
Headquarters: World War II older $39.99 508 74% 15k $609k (exactly $609,448) Starni Games
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games
Glorious Companions $19.99 182 61% 5.5k $109k (exactly $109,145) Ancient Forge
Pennon and Battle $18.99 175 69% 5.3k $100k (exactly $99,697) PB Studio
Warhammer: Mark of Chaos - Gold Edition (Classic) $14.99 188 96% 5.6k $85k (exactly $84,544) Black Hole Entertainment
Skygard Arena $14.99 93 77% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Gemelli Games
Danmo Three Kingdoms: Battle of Wits $11.99 82 76% 2.5k $29k (exactly $29,495) 墨春秋

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.