Should I ship a PvP Sports game?
PvP + Sports
Of 367 developers who shipped a PvP Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 517 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×742 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 517 games are announced against 236 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,346) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,050) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,111,805) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 367 |
| Released games | 1,274 |
| Announced | 517 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Sports; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Arcade, Local Multiplayer
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 68% positive over 343,545 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 209 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 517 games are announced against 236 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M 
Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M 
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 2025 · $209M 
Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M 
NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
| | Need for Speed™ Heat | older | $69.99 | 128,933 84% | 3.9M | $271M (exactly $270,720,620) | Ghost Games |
| | EA SPORTS FC™ 26 | $69.99 | 99,773 50% | 3.0M | $209M (exactly $209,493,368) | EA Canada, EA Romania | |
| | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
| | NBA 2K25 | older | $69.99 | 30,969 60% | 929k | $65M (exactly $65,025,609) | Visual Concepts |
 | NBA 2K26 | $69.99 | 25,651 66% | 770k | $54M (exactly $53,859,405) | Visual Concepts | |
 | The Crew Motorfest | older | $69.99 | 24,230 78% | 727k | $51M (exactly $50,875,731) | Ubisoft Ivory Tower |
 | DJMAX RESPECT V | older | $49.99 | 29,808 88% | 894k | $45M (exactly $44,703,058) | NEOWIZ |
 | CarX Drift Racing Online | older | $16.99 | 82,720 95% | 2.5M | $42M (exactly $42,162,384) | CarX Technologies, LLC |
 | Beat Saber | older | $19.99 | 69,750 95% | 2.1M | $42M (exactly $41,829,075) | Beat Games |
 | F1® 25 | $49.99 | 25,395 87% | 762k | $38M (exactly $38,084,882) | Codemasters | |
 | REMATCH | $29.99 | 39,905 70% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,902,528) | Sloclap | |
 | Undisputed | $49.99 | 19,190 60% | 576k | $29M (exactly $28,779,243) | Steel City Interactive | |
 | INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road | $69.99 | 11,180 88% | 335k | $23M (exactly $23,474,646) | LEVEL5 Inc. | |
 | Assetto Corsa EVO | · EA | $39.99 | 16,545 60% | 496k | $20M (exactly $19,849,036) | KUNOS Simulazioni |
 | Le Mans Ultimate | $39.99 | 15,068 79% | 452k | $18M (exactly $18,077,080) | Studio 397 | |
 | WWE 2K25 | $59.99 | 4,108 73% | 123k | $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) | Visual Concepts |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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