Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Split Screen

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Split Screen game?

PvP + Split Screen

Of 141 developers who shipped a PvP Split Screen game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 186 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $320; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×240 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 186 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 186 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Split Screen
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 141
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.1k → $2.4k → $10k → $1.4k → $3.0k → $839 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Split Screen: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 141
Bottom 30% $315 (exactly $315)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 5% $359k (exactly $359,220)
Developers, 2 yr 141
Released games 454
Announced 186
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Split Screen
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Split Screen; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Local Multiplayer, Arcade, Racing
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 43,361 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $320, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $320. 8 in 10 of the 72 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 186 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds $69.99 11,479 93% 344k $24M (exactly $24,102,456) Sonic Team
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 older $39.99 17,281 91% 518k $21M (exactly $20,732,016) Koei Tecmo
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship older $19.99 12,146 82% 364k $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) KT Racing
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
One Piece Burning Blood older $49.99 3,751 81% 113k $5.6M (exactly $5,625,375) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Need for Speed™ Rivals older $19.99 9,265 76% 278k $5.6M (exactly $5,556,220) Criterion Games
Screamer $59.99 1,039 80% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,888) Milestone S.r.l.
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
The Karters 2: Turbo Charged · EA $29.99 1,043 91% 31k $938k (exactly $938,387) Pixel Edge Games
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
Super Woden: Rally Edge $12.99 1,552 96% 47k $605k (exactly $604,814) ViJuDa
Wreckreation $39.99 360 63% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) Three Fields Entertainment
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
Victory Heat Rally $19.99 599 88% 18k $359k (exactly $359,220) Skydevilpalm

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.