Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Souls-like

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Souls-like?

PvP + Souls-like

Of 23 developers who shipped a PvP Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×4.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×6136 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 77 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 77 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Souls-like
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6M → $449 → $1.9k → $748 → $35k → $27k → $4.8k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Souls-like: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 78
Announced 77
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Souls-like; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvE, Action RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2.5D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 30,680 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin 2015 · $100M DARK SOULS™ II 2014 · $40M Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin older $39.99 83,722 84% 2.5M $100M (exactly $100,441,283) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ II older $39.99 33,329 87% 1.0M $40M (exactly $39,984,801) FromSoftware, Inc.
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE $39.99 7,662 70% 230k $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) Netmarble Neo
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
STRANGER OF PARADISE FINAL FANTASY ORIGIN older $39.99 3,735 82% 112k $4.5M (exactly $4,480,880) Square Enix, KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Bleak Faith: Forsaken older $29.99 2,839 75% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) Archangel Studios
JUMP KING QUEST $14.99 1,202 88% 36k $541k (exactly $540,539) Nexile
HOTEL BARCELONA $29.99 269 71% 8.1k $242k (exactly $242,019) White Owls Inc.
Crimson Capes $14.99 165 90% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Poor Locke
DragonRoad $19.98 82 91% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,151) XuJie
Sex With Friends $4.99 236 94% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,329) B-Team
Morgenstern · EA $12.99 88 72% 2.6k $34k (exactly $34,294) Doublesmith GmbH
Deep Blue: Devour and Evolve $8.99 100 83% 3.0k $27k (exactly $26,970) ZHOUZEMING

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.