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Should I ship a PvP Simulation game?
PvP + Simulation
Of 447 developers who shipped a PvP Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 763 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×2562 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 763 games are announced against 278 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $390 (exactly $390) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) |
| Top 25% | $36k (exactly $35,991) |
| Top 5% | $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 447 |
| Released games | 1,577 |
| Announced | 763 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Online Co-Op, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 493,372 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 255 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 763 games are announced against 278 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M 
Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M 
Squad 2020 · $217M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
| | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
 | EA SPORTS FC™ 26 | $69.99 | 99,773 50% | 3.0M | $209M (exactly $209,493,368) | EA Canada, EA Romania | |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
 | Hell Let Loose | older | $49.99 | 99,628 83% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,412,112) | Expression Games |
 | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
 | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | NBA 2K26 | $69.99 | 25,651 66% | 770k | $54M (exactly $53,859,405) | Visual Concepts | |
 | F1® 25 | $49.99 | 25,395 87% | 762k | $38M (exactly $38,084,882) | Codemasters | |
 | REMATCH | $29.99 | 39,905 70% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,902,528) | Sloclap | |
 | Undisputed | $49.99 | 19,190 60% | 576k | $29M (exactly $28,779,243) | Steel City Interactive | |
 | Pavlov | $24.99 | 37,865 88% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $28,387,390) | Vankrupt Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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