Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Shooter?

PvP + Shooter

Of 405 developers who shipped a PvP Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,173 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 1,173 games are announced against 249 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,173 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 405
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.2k → $628 → $719 → $897 → $899 → $748 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 405
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894)
Developers, 2 yr 405
Released games 1,797
Announced 1,173
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 35%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Co-op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,061,755 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 290 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,173 games are announced against 249 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M DayZ 2018 · $582M Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Garry's Mod older $9.99 1,093,131 96% 33M $328M (exactly $327,611,361) Facepunch Studios
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 $69.99 14,063 44% 422k $30M (exactly $29,528,081) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware)
Pavlov $24.99 37,865 88% 1.1M $28M (exactly $28,387,390) Vankrupt Games
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.