Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Runner?

PvP + Runner

Of 66 developers who shipped a PvP Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 100 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 25% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 100 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $1.4k → $1.2k → $599 → $719 → $899 → $240 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,867)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $19,791)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 219
Announced 100
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Racing, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 972 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $540, 1 in 4 over $1.8k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
DeathSprint 66 older $19.99 495 83% 15k $297k (exactly $296,852) Sumo Digital
Panoptic older $16.99 281 96% 8.4k $143k (exactly $143,226) Team Panoptes
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
HerrAnwalt: Lawyers Legacy · EA older $5.99 471 78% 14k $85k (exactly $84,639) Yannick
No More Rainbows older $19.99 120 90% 3.6k $72k (exactly $71,964) Squido Studio, Robot Teddy
Jelly Bubble $9.99 170 99% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) BINGOBELL
NiuMa $5.99 263 91% 7.9k $47k (exactly $47,261) Game Star
Hot Lap Racing older $29.99 51 64% 1.5k $46k (exactly $45,885) Zero Games Studios
Parkour Tag older $7.99 170 87% 5.1k $41k (exactly $40,749) Loopnova Studio
Hashire HEBEREKE: EX $21.99 30 100% 900 $20k (exactly $19,791) CRT GAMES
HoloRun $4.99 76 57% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,377) Pixfox
DRAFTYCAR 2 · EA $14.99 24 95% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Speedway Labs
Drunk Builder Simulator $2.99 78 39% 2.3k $7.0k (exactly $6,997) Viper
EvoWars: New Era $8.99 25 72% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) Night Steed Games
Synthwave Dream '85 $3.99 48 100% 1.4k $5.7k (exactly $5,746) LoneDev
4 Rush Together $4.99 29 86% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Honglizi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.