Should I ship a PvP RTS?
PvP + RTS
Of 121 developers who shipped a PvP RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 317 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×930 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 317 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,157) |
| Top 25% | $32k (exactly $32,384) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 121 |
| Released games | 463 |
| Announced | 317 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 38%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, RTS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action RTS, Base Building
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 82,060 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 317 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M 
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M 
Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M 
Company of Heroes 3 2023 · $44M 
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition 2020 · $39M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER III | older | $59.99 | 104,822 71% | 3.1M | $189M (exactly $188,648,153) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive |
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
| | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
| | Company of Heroes 3 | older | $59.99 | 24,516 59% | 735k | $44M (exactly $44,121,445) | Relic Entertainment |
| | Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 37,093 84% | 1.1M | $39M (exactly $38,936,522) | World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires) |
 | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
 | Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront | older | $34.99 | 32,183 85% | 965k | $34M (exactly $33,782,495) | Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft |
 | Command & Conquer™ Remastered Collection | older | $19.99 | 31,503 90% | 945k | $19M (exactly $18,892,349) | Petroglyph, Lemon Sky Studios |
 | Age of Mythology: Retold | older | $29.99 | 20,943 90% | 628k | $19M (exactly $18,842,417) | World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus Media, CaptureAge, Virtuos Games) |
 | WARNO | older | $39.99 | 14,502 80% | 435k | $17M (exactly $17,398,049) | Eugen Systems |
 | Tempest Rising | $39.99 | 9,811 87% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,770,257) | Slipgate Ironworks™ | |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition | $29.99 | 12,286 85% | 369k | $11M (exactly $11,053,714) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | Mechabellum | $14.99 | 17,856 84% | 536k | $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) | Game River | |
 | Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition | $19.99 | 10,627 92% | 319k | $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) | Firefly Studios | |
 | ERA ONE | · EA | $29.99 | 1,575 86% | 47k | $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) | Team Complex LTD |
 | ZeroSpace | · EA | $39.99 | 1,161 78% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) | Starlance Studios, Ironward |
 | ICBM: Escalation | $29.99 | 1,248 86% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) | SoftWarWare | |
 | Empire of the Ants | $39.99 | 931 73% | 28k | $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) | Tower Five | |
 | Sudden Strike 5 | $49.99 | 641 75% | 19k | $961k (exactly $961,308) | Kite Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.