Should I ship a PvP RPG?
PvP + RPG
Of 262 developers who shipped a paid PvP RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 923 more are announced, ×6.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×2001 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 923 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) |
| Top 25% | $41k (exactly $41,057) |
| Top 5% | $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 262 |
| Released games | 1,240 |
| Announced | 923 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 50%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, PvE
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 335,757 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 236 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 923 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M 
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 
Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M 
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
| | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
| | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin | older | $39.99 | 83,722 84% | 2.5M | $100M (exactly $100,441,283) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | FOR HONOR™ | older | $29.99 | 108,492 69% | 3.3M | $98M (exactly $97,610,252) | Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte) |
 | Conan Exiles Enhanced | older | $39.99 | 79,741 78% | 2.4M | $96M (exactly $95,665,278) | Funcom, Inflexion Games |
 | INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road | $69.99 | 11,180 88% | 335k | $23M (exactly $23,474,646) | LEVEL5 Inc. | |
 | Halloween: The Game | $39.99 | 11,868 68% | 356k | $14M (exactly $14,238,040) | IllFonic | |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE | $39.99 | 7,662 70% | 230k | $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) | Netmarble Neo | |
 | HumanitZ | $19.99 | 11,155 74% | 335k | $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) | Yodubzz Studios | |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | ATLYSS | · EA | $9.99 | 19,244 96% | 577k | $5.8M (exactly $5,767,427) | Kiseff |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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