Should I ship a PvP Roguelike?
PvP + Roguelike
Of 134 developers who shipped a PvP Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 282 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×198 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 282 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,028) |
| Top 5% | $296k (exactly $296,252) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 134 |
| Released games | 296 |
| Announced | 282 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Card Battler
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 32,857 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 282 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Monster Train 2020 · $15M 
UNO 2017 · $13M 
Spelunky 2 2020 · $12M 
For The King II 2023 · $9.5M 
Backpack Battles 2025 · $8.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Train | older | $24.99 | 19,950 95% | 599k | $15M (exactly $14,956,515) | Shiny Shoe |
| | UNO | older | $9.99 | 42,019 70% | 1.3M | $13M (exactly $12,593,094) | Ubisoft Entertainment |
| | Spelunky 2 | older | $19.99 | 19,736 93% | 592k | $12M (exactly $11,835,679) | Mossmouth, BlitWorks |
| | For The King II | older | $24.99 | 12,708 71% | 381k | $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) | IronOak Games |
| | Backpack Battles | $14.99 | 18,933 91% | 568k | $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) | PlayWithFurcifer | |
 | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
 | Lost Castle / 失落城堡 | older | $9.99 | 18,417 87% | 553k | $5.5M (exactly $5,519,575) | Hunter Studio |
 | Gordian Quest | older | $19.99 | 5,259 88% | 158k | $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) | Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd) |
 | Tape to Tape | · EA older | $19.99 | 3,464 92% | 104k | $2.1M (exactly $2,077,361) | Excellent Rectangle |
 | Conquest of Elysium 5 | older | $29.99 | 1,872 90% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | NBA THE RUN | $29.99 | 900 68% | 27k | $810k (exactly $809,730) | Play by Play Studios | |
 | Card-en-Ciel | $24.99 | 856 90% | 26k | $642k (exactly $641,743) | INTI CREATES CO., LTD. | |
 | LET IT DIE: INFERNO | $24.99 | 774 52% | 23k | $580k (exactly $580,268) | SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc. | |
 | Wretch: Divine Ascent | $14.99 | 975 75% | 29k | $438k (exactly $438,458) | Ogopogo | |
 | Firehawk: FPV Drone Shooter | $19.99 | 494 91% | 15k | $296k (exactly $296,252) | TruePlayers | |
 | HOTEL BARCELONA | $29.99 | 269 71% | 8.1k | $242k (exactly $242,019) | White Owls Inc. | |
 | Toy Smash Kaboom! | $13.99 | 550 84% | 17k | $231k (exactly $230,835) | Free Particle | |
 | Monster Battles | $14.99 | 459 74% | 14k | $206k (exactly $206,412) | Fourteen |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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