Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Real Time Tactics?

PvP + Real Time Tactics

Of 167 developers who shipped a PvP Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 401 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 401 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 15% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 401 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 167
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $3.3k → $2.4k → $1.5k → $897 → $719 → $209 (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 167
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,992)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921)
Developers, 2 yr 167
Released games 546
Announced 401
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 37%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Real Time Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 138,466 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $540, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 401 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Arma Reforger older $39.99 51,613 80% 1.5M $62M (exactly $61,920,116) Bohemia Interactive
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Command & Conquer™ Remastered Collection older $19.99 31,503 90% 945k $19M (exactly $18,892,349) Petroglyph, Lemon Sky Studios
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Dune: Spice Wars older $34.99 11,561 79% 347k $12M (exactly $12,135,582) Shiro Games
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Pro Soccer Online $4.99 23,241 82% 697k $3.5M (exactly $3,479,178) Skywall Studios LLC
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Empire of the Ants $39.99 931 73% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) Tower Five
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.