Should I ship a PvP Real-Time game?
PvP + Real-Time
Only 9 developers shipped a PvP Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tempest Rising, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $20k against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $16k (exactly $15,584) |
|---|---|
| Median | $20k (exactly $19,787) |
| Top 25% | $60k (exactly $60,260) |
| Top 5% | $12M (exactly $11,770,257) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 52 |
| Announced | 20 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Real-Time
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 44,227 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $16k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Tempest Rising 2025 · $12M 
Sins of a Solar Empire II 2024 · $11M 
Iron Harvest 2020 · $11M 
Airships: Conquer the Skies 2018 · $4.6M 
Blitzkrieg 3 2017 · $1.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Tempest Rising | $39.99 | 9,811 87% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,770,257) | Slipgate Ironworks™ | |
| | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
| | Iron Harvest | older | $29.99 | 11,682 74% | 350k | $11M (exactly $10,510,295) | KING Art |
| | Airships: Conquer the Skies | older | $24.99 | 6,197 95% | 186k | $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) | David Stark |
| | Blitzkrieg 3 | older | $9.99 | 5,161 52% | 155k | $1.5M (exactly $1,546,752) | Nival |
 | BattleGroupVR | older | $24.99 | 858 92% | 26k | $643k (exactly $643,243) | SpaceOwl Games |
 | Original War | older | $9.99 | 1,812 94% | 54k | $543k (exactly $543,056) | Altar Games |
 | A Year Of Rain | older | $14.99 | 503 42% | 15k | $226k (exactly $226,199) | Daedalic Entertainment |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire: Trinity® | older | $9.99 | 687 78% | 21k | $206k (exactly $205,894) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | TFC: The Fertile Crescent | older | $10.99 | 369 88% | 11k | $122k (exactly $121,659) | Wield Interactive |
 | Warhammer: Mark of Chaos - Gold Edition (Classic) | $14.99 | 188 96% | 5.6k | $85k (exactly $84,544) | Black Hole Entertainment | |
 | Moduwar | · EA | $14.99 | 134 88% | 4.0k | $60k (exactly $60,260) | Biohex Studios |
 | Battlefall: State of Conflict | · EA | $19.99 | 52 63% | 1.6k | $31k (exactly $31,184) | Kyoto Video Game Concern |
 | Stardust Exile | $14.99 | 44 70% | 1.3k | $20k (exactly $19,787) | Apseren | |
 | TFC2: The Fertile Crescent 2 - Collapse of The Bronze Age | · EA | $17.99 | 33 81% | 990 | $18k (exactly $17,810) | Wield Interactive |
 | Tactical Warfare | $9.99 | 52 67% | 1.6k | $16k (exactly $15,584) | Mizrab | |
 | Fleet Hunters | $4.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) | Gnarly Labs SRL | |
 | Edge Of Extinction | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Azulon Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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