Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Quick-Time Events

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Quick-Time Events game?

PvP + Quick-Time Events

Of 27 developers who shipped a PvP Quick-Time Events game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $330 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 21 developers shipped in the last year and 71 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 71 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Quick-Time Events
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $479 → $1.2k → $693 → $1.0k → $38 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Quick-Time Events: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $38 (exactly $38)
Median $330 (exactly $330)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 5% $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 83
Announced 71
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Quick-Time Events
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Quick-Time Events; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, Online Co-Op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,995 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $330, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $3.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles older $59.99 16,545 87% 496k $30M (exactly $29,776,036) CyberConnect2
Call of Duty®: Advanced Warfare - Gold Edition older $39.99 11,103 64% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
Headbangers: Rhythm Royale older $29.99 983 69% 29k $884k (exactly $884,405) Glee-Cheese Studio
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- Sweep the Board! older $59.99 113 85% 3.4k $203k (exactly $203,366) CyberConnect2
Prison Life 2 older $4.99 188 77% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) AO Games
SGS Halls of Montezuma older $24.99 35 74% 1.1k $26k (exactly $26,240) The Strategy Game Studio
Ultra Foodmess older $3.99 105 93% 3.2k $13k (exactly $12,568) Riftpoint Entertainment
Schlag den Star - Das 3. Spiel older $29.99 11 9% 330 $9.9k (exactly $9,897) Twigames Inc.
California Games (C64/DOS/Atari/Lynx/NES/SMS/Genesis) older $9.99 23 69% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Epyx, Inc.
Bad Football · EA $6.99 17 88% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) major outage
Mimetic - Prop hunt hide and seek $4.70 25 80% 750 $3.5k (exactly $3,525) ClockNotionStudio
Seven Sinners $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) BillysBones, Grable Team
Smoke Town $6.99 9 100% 270 $1.9k (exactly $1,887) TSRV
Fomo-trading $4.99 12 25% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) 明夜
Car Guys $5.99 9 33% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Ruben Alcañiz
The King of Wall Street $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Yogo Studio
Rush Roulette · EA $6.99 5 100% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Terralithic
You Draw, I Guess $1.99 17 88% 510 $1.0k (exactly $1,015) 501JOY

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.