Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Platformer Stealth game?

Stealth + Puzzle Platformer

Of 54 developers who shipped a Puzzle Platformer Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×353 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 147 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 147 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.2k → $3.6k → $4.8k → $449 → $210 → $1.8k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 5% $222k (exactly $221,889)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 220
Announced 147
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth, Puzzle Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Platformer, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2.5D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,672 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Little Nightmares II older $29.99 50,280 92% 1.5M $45M (exactly $45,236,916) Tarsier Studios
Little Nightmares older $19.99 52,184 94% 1.6M $31M (exactly $31,294,745) Tarsier Studios
Chants of Sennaar older $19.99 30,416 98% 912k $18M (exactly $18,240,475) Rundisc
VLADiK BRUTAL older $11.99 9,551 89% 287k $3.4M (exactly $3,435,495) BRUTAL SOFTWARE
DARQ: Complete Edition older $19.99 3,575 94% 107k $2.1M (exactly $2,143,928) Unfold Games
Oddworld: New 'n' Tasty older $19.99 2,900 86% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,739,130) Just Add Water (Developments), Ltd.
White Shadows older $19.99 1,877 81% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,125,637) Monokel
Hello Neighbor: Hide and Seek older $29.99 1,217 87% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,094,935) Dynamic Pixels
Timelie older $17.99 1,783 95% 53k $962k (exactly $962,285) Urnique Studio
YUMENIKKI -DREAM DIARY- older $19.99 1,350 69% 41k $810k (exactly $809,595) KADOKAWA CORPORATION, Active Gaming Med… (KADOKAWA CORPORATION, Active Gaming Media Inc.)
Bye Sweet Carole $24.99 1,039 72% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Little Sewing Machine
Darwin's Paradox! $24.99 843 87% 25k $632k (exactly $631,997) ZDT Studio
Deer & Boy $19.99 370 94% 11k $222k (exactly $221,889) Lifeline Games
Ayasa: Shadows of Silence $24.99 110 74% 3.3k $82k (exactly $82,467) Aya Games
Cycle of Corruption $14.99 84 94% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Kredyn
Antro $14.99 42 92% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Gatera Studio
SECTOR ZERO $3.99 138 93% 4.1k $17k (exactly $16,519) Ondrej Angelovic
KIYO - Bunny Tyranny $14.99 23 100% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Pixel Rats
Animosity $14.99 15 93% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Red River Studio
Hannah $19.99 8 87% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) Spaceboy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.