Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Platformer Sandbox?

Sandbox + Puzzle Platformer

Of 49 developers who shipped a Puzzle Platformer Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 26 developers shipped in the last year and 78 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 78 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $599 → $5.0k → $1.1k → $210 → $300 → $598 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $659 (exactly $659)
Top 5% $97k (exactly $97,370)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 170
Announced 78
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Puzzle Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Exploration, Platformer
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 9,928 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $210, 1 in 4 over $650, 1 in 20 over $97k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Human Fall Flat 2016 · $105M Farever 2026 · EA · $5.4M Super Bunny Man 2023 · $4.6M Biped 2020 · $4.1M Moncage 2021 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Super Bunny Man older $14.99 10,143 85% 304k $4.6M (exactly $4,561,307) Catobyte
Biped older $14.99 9,025 85% 271k $4.1M (exactly $4,058,542) NEXT Studios
Moncage older $14.99 5,127 92% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,612) Optillusion
Tchia older $29.99 571 89% 17k $514k (exactly $513,729) Awaceb
Mosa Lina older $7.99 2,014 95% 60k $483k (exactly $482,756) Stuffed Wombat, Silkersoft, Lukke, Roll… (Stuffed Wombat, Silkersoft, Lukke, Rollin'Barrel)
Lakeview Cabin Collection older $9.99 1,599 94% 48k $479k (exactly $479,220) Roope Tamminen
Zup! 3 older $1.99 5,335 90% 160k $319k (exactly $318,500) Quiet River
Paper Beast older $19.99 529 94% 16k $317k (exactly $317,241) Pixel Reef
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Moving Houses $13.99 232 72% 7.0k $97k (exactly $97,370) Gordon Little
Human Fall Flat VR $12.99 128 47% 3.8k $50k (exactly $49,882) No Brakes Games
Blockmind · EA $1.99 115 78% 3.5k $6.9k (exactly $6,866) Quacky Games
Blueprint Bob $6.99 18 100% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) Alexander Lahti, Suumpmolk, The LoFi Bo… (Alexander Lahti, Suumpmolk, The LoFi Boi, MrMusicGuy)
Neon Sunset $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Gamesforgames
Explore Dreams: Dreamcore $12.99 5 80% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Maxwell Play
Pixel Forge $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) MELOVITY
SolveIt! A Puzzle Solving Simulator · EA $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Vsevolod Khlebnikov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.