Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Puzzle game?

PvP + Puzzle

Of 205 developers who shipped a PvP Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 274 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×118 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 274 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 274 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 205
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $2.7k → $719 → $1.3k → $719 → $599 → $719 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 205
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $480 (exactly $480)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 5% $176k (exactly $176,312)
Developers, 2 yr 205
Released games 600
Announced 274
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Online Co-Op, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 72,737 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $480, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 274 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Besiege 2020 · $22M Liar's Bar 2024 · EA · $10M Tetris® Effect: Connected 2021 · $10M Secret Neighbor: Hello Neighbor Multiplayer 2019 · $8.9M Tricky Towers 2016 · $5.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation
Tetris® Effect: Connected older $39.99 8,429 94% 253k $10M (exactly $10,112,271) Monstars Inc., Resonair, Stage Games
Secret Neighbor: Hello Neighbor Multiplayer older $19.99 14,865 86% 446k $8.9M (exactly $8,914,540) Hologryph, Eerie Guest Studios
Tricky Towers older $14.99 12,390 90% 372k $5.6M (exactly $5,571,783) WeirdBeard
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Draw & Guess older $4.99 31,627 83% 949k $4.7M (exactly $4,734,562) Acureus
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
In Silence older $9.99 9,450 75% 284k $2.8M (exactly $2,832,165) Ravenhood Games
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Lumines Arise $39.99 848 94% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,017,346) Enhance, Monstars Inc.
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
TETRIS® THE GRAND MASTER 4 -ABSOLUTE EYE- $24.99 610 87% 18k $457k (exactly $457,317) ARIKA
Level Devil $6.99 1,304 91% 39k $273k (exactly $273,449) Unept
Scam Line · EA $6.99 1,088 84% 33k $228k (exactly $228,154) RavenJm
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Class of '09: Puzzle Showdown $19.99 333 57% 10k $200k (exactly $199,700) SBN3
Bogos Binted? $5.49 1,134 91% 34k $187k (exactly $186,770) underbadger

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.