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Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Psychological Horror
Only 9 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deck of Haunts, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $35k, ×56 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $29k; 1 in 20 cleared $720k, ×1152 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $29k (exactly $28,786) |
|---|---|
| Median | $35k (exactly $35,192) |
| Top 25% | $141k (exactly $140,972) |
| Top 5% | $723k (exactly $723,238) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 54 |
| Announced | 13 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Psychological Horror
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 138,031 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $29k. 2 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
OMORI 2020 · $48M 
Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M 
Card Survival: Tropical Island 2022 · $2.2M 
BLUE REFLECTION: Second Light 2021 · $1.7M 
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 2021 · $1.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | OMORI | older | $19.99 | 79,836 97% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,877,649) | OMOCAT, LLC |
| | Library Of Ruina | older | $29.99 | 40,605 94% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $36,532,318) | ProjectMoon |
| | Card Survival: Tropical Island | older | $24.99 | 2,962 94% | 89k | $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) | WinterSpring Games |
| | BLUE REFLECTION: Second Light | older | $59.99 | 948 82% | 28k | $1.7M (exactly $1,706,116) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Fuga: Melodies of Steel | older | $39.99 | 1,181 93% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) | CyberConnect2 |
 | Death end re;Quest | older | $29.99 | 1,034 77% | 31k | $930k (exactly $930,290) | Idea Factory, Compile Heart |
 | Warhammer Quest (Classic) | older | $29.99 | 897 71% | 27k | $807k (exactly $807,031) | Rodeo Games, Twistplay |
 | Hylics | older | $2.99 | 8,356 98% | 251k | $750k (exactly $749,533) | Mason Lindroth |
 | Deck of Haunts | $19.99 | 1,206 84% | 36k | $723k (exactly $723,238) | Mantis | |
 | YIIK: A Postmodern RPG | older | $19.99 | 1,006 80% | 30k | $603k (exactly $603,298) | Ackk Studios |
 | Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 | $39.99 | 220 89% | 6.6k | $264k (exactly $263,934) | CyberConnect2 | |
 | R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos | $49.99 | 94 82% | 2.8k | $141k (exactly $140,972) | Granzella Inc. | |
 | Brainwashing Academy - The Cursed Person's Pot | $15.99 | 98 87% | 2.9k | $47k (exactly $47,011) | U-ROOM | |
 | Deckline | $3.99 | 294 86% | 8.8k | $35k (exactly $35,192) | Room Games, KREIDPIX | |
 | You Are NOT Bunnygirl | $9.99 | 106 95% | 3.2k | $32k (exactly $31,768) | (Just)Jordan | |
 | Cairn: Mathair's Curse | $19.99 | 48 89% | 1.4k | $29k (exactly $28,786) | Ross McRitchie | |
 | Mercenaries Lament: Requiem of the Silver Wolf | $19.99 | 35 42% | 1.1k | $21k (exactly $20,990) | ESQUADRA,inc., RideonJapan | |
 | Don't Freeze: A Winter Card Survival | · EA | $17.99 | 31 74% | 930 | $17k (exactly $16,731) | YOLO35GAMES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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