Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Psychological Horror

Only 14 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vultures - Scavengers of Death, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×457 the market median. Revenue is up 285% on the market; 26 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 285% on the market, 26 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $80k → $239 → $23k → $3.6k → $7.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $22,777)
Top 5% $287k (exactly $287,120)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 44
Announced 26
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Combat, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,160 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery older $24.99 4,861 78% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.)
Fuga: Melodies of Steel older $39.99 1,181 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) CyberConnect2
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 2 older $39.99 360 96% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) CyberConnect2
Lakeview Valley older $14.99 710 82% 21k $319k (exactly $319,287) Roope Tamminen
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 $39.99 220 89% 6.6k $264k (exactly $263,934) CyberConnect2
Bastard Bonds older $10.99 791 88% 24k $261k (exactly $260,793) Bigfingers
Stirring Abyss older $24.99 334 88% 10k $250k (exactly $250,400) Sleepy Sentry, K-Project
Mugen Souls older $19.99 249 69% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) Idea Factory
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
SkullX: Aibohphobia $9.99 76 90% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) SkullX, DSTRCT Creatives
STARWEAVE $4.99 49 95% 1.5k $7.3k (exactly $7,335) Studio Starweave
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
Downward Spear · EA $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) imakegame software
ASHWAKE · EA $14.99 8 62% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Ghost Development
鬼灵的冒险GUILING's Adventure $1.99 54 94% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) 硅晶石工作室Sicrystal Studio
Wizabeasts $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Pumpkin Pi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.